At Number 1, I think we all know who the Jaguars will be selecting. So, is Trevor Lawrence the best QB prospect in the draft since Andrew Luck? Let’s dive on in. Firstly, his decision making is top notch. He has an incredible ability to discern what the best kind of pass to make in order for his receivers to be in the best possible position to catch it. Whether that be a lob pass, a bullet pass, or a back shoulder one, he always seems to get it right. He puts a tremendous amount of trust in his receivers meaning it will be key to his success in the NFL. Jacksonville will have to spend a significant amount of time ensuring their skill position players know exactly where to be otherwise it could lead to some turnovers during the season. Lawrence also has the ability to read defenses and more specifically body language. He understands the fundamentals of player positioning and the way they orientate their bodies to cover players. Another great thing about Lawrence is despite the fact that he is 6’6”, he is quite fast on his feet. There were times that Clemson used the read option in the red zone and Lawrence opted to keep the ball and outran Defensive Ends for TDs.
He isn’t perfect though. He actually has a little bit of an issue with his fundamentals when it comes to his footwork. He’ll often spread his legs out too far forcing him to overcompensate with his arm that lead to inaccurate passes. He also isn’t the greatest in short accuracy when he is being blitzed. Beyond that, he seems way too willing to take massive shots.
At Number 2, I believe the Jets will be taking QB Zach Wilson out of BYU. On draft day you will hear Patrick Mahomes in the same sentence as Wilson from various analysts mostly for his playmaking ability. He has no issues stepping up in the pocket and firing rockets down the field without having to formally plant his feet. The worst thing about him is where he played. BYU faced the likes of Navy, Louisiana Tech, and Texas State in route to their 11-1 record. Every opponent they faced was simply inferior. On top of that, Wilson was one of the most protected QB’s in the country. The Jets will want to figure that out as fast as they can considering they gave up the 9th most sacks in the league last year at 43. It is worth noting that when he was pressured, he performed quite well.
Wilson’s decision making is one of his best traits. I watched a video of Samuel Gold the other day that noted that 1% of his throws were “turnover worthy” while the national average was above 3%.
Zach will have to work really hard in the offseason on reading defenses better. Unlike Trevor Lawrence, he doesn’t showcase the ability to anticipate defensive behaviors or read body language for that matter. I think he’ll also have to develop in making the game easier for himself. Too often he looked for bigger plays that weren’t open and ignored the open receiver on a short route.
At Number 3, I’m not convinced that the 49ers are all in a QB. Garappolo took them to a Super Bowl just 2 years ago and maybe they feel they are a playmaker (and health) away from getting back there. With that being said, I’m not sure they will be able to pass up Justin Fields at this position. The one prospect I am confident they won’t be taking is Mac Jones who didn’t pop up until this season.
For the past decade, Ohio State QBs have relied heavily on athleticism like Cardell Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and Terrell Pryor. While Justin Field’s 4.44 40-yard dash on his pro day seems to continue that trend, he does a lot more than that. He has one of the most accurate arms in the entire draft and can make throws at all three levels. Another great thing about him is just how tough he is. We all know about that nasty shot he took against Clemson last year that would have sidelined the majority of QBs for weeks. Instead, he got himself out there for the Championship Game and had a heck of a game against Alabama.
Fields shows a great desire to receive coaching and improve upon his mistakes on a weekly basis. With that being said, he has to get way better with pocket awareness. He is way too focused at times on his reads and ignores the possibility of being sacked or having the pocket collapse around him. Like Wilson, Fields also struggles to anticipate throws. This could be a much better situation to deal with on the 49ers however, being that Jimmy is still likely to be the starter for the year. Justin can sit for a year learning more about how the game works.
At Number 4, I think Atlanta is completely fine with Matt Ryan being their Quarterback for now. This is especially true because I think there is a significant gap between those three quarterbacks and the ones that will be taken after. In fact, the Falcons will see this position as a gift. Since they are touting Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley already, they will likely take Kyle Pitts.
Pitts is an athletic monster. We usually talk about receivers being the best 50/50 ball catchers, but in this year’s draft he takes number one. Florida often lined this guy up as a single receiver outside in the second half of the field just so they could match him up with corners. He often beat DB’s (in the SEC) on slant routes simply because of how scary he is on the outside. His hands are unnaturally strong for his position. This would be the best pick for the Falcons in the long term as well. When they do decide to go with a new QB in the near future, they will have Calvin Ridley and Pitts to help transition him to the next level. Players of Pitts’ caliber simply do not exist in many drafts.
The one bad thing about his game is he has had injury problems. He has never played a full season and only amassed 8 games last year.
At number 5, Cincinnati has a no brainer. They will be taking OT Peni Sewell from Oregon. The Bengals potentially shortened Joe Burrow’s career last year by not protecting him and they will not want to make that mistake again. Luckily for them, they will be selecting what most people consider to be a generational talent. With a 2019 resume that included 0 sacks allowed, 7 pressures allowed, and 58 knockdowns this guy is an absolute monster. Sewell was used in Oregon’s schemes to chip the Edge rusher and find open corners to block on screen plays. That kind of athletic ability alone makes him one of the best talents in this draft period.
This guy is dedicated to his craft. He is so swift on his feet and can adjust to speed from outside with amazing positioning. He also somehow possesses the strength of an inside lineman. He manhandled numerous NFL caliber players throughout all of 2019. Whether it is straight drop back, pulling from the left side of the line to block inside, or running to help block for screens like I mentioned earlier, it literally doesn’t matter. The Bengals couldn’t have asked for anything better here.
At Number 6 I have the Miami Dolphins taking WR Ja’Marr Chase from LSU. Despite how talented last year’s receiver class was, many predicted Chase would still have been the first WR off the board. After a pedestrian freshman season at LSU, he exploded onto the scene in 2019 with Joe Burrow. He recorded over 1700 yards to go along with 20 touchdowns. Chase is an elite route runner and has an amazing feel for the game similar to Trevor Lawrence. He is able to understand defensive schemes which is rarely seen from his position. Pressing this kid in college was something that could rarely be done. He has great hand control and can keep corners from pressing him at the line. In fact, his hands were often the reason he got a lot of separation. He does an amazing job of positioning himself and tracking the ball in the air. This is a guy who knocked former Alabama CB Diggs to the second-round last year because of how much he dominated him. The Dolphins will, like everyone else, benefit from a QB heavy draft since I believe Chase would normally be a top 3 pick in most drafts. The only thing worth mentioning against his game is that he is only 6’1” and would not be classified as an athletic freak.
At Number 7 the Lions sure would have wished to see Ja’Marr fall to them but I don’t think that will be the case. Instead, they will have to “settle” for WR Devonta Smith. The 2020 Heisman winner was an absolute beast. He had 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. Like Chase, he is also 6’1”. Like many Alabama WRs, he has game breaking speed. They used him in numerous sets meaning they wanted to do anything to put the ball in his hands. When he isn’t being pressed it’s near impossible for most corners to stay with him. He’s basically a slightly slower Henry Ruggs but with skill. Strangly enough, the one thing that hasn’t been seen a lot is how he competes against press coverage. The stronger guys in the NFL will likely be able to push him off the line. Many people think that Detroit will be looking to take on a QB here, but considering the best prospect left in the draft is Mac Jones, can you even discern him from Jared Goff? On top of that, I can’t think of a worse situation to place a rookie into.
At Number 8, I think the Carolina Panthers will select Mac Jones. While his hype this offseason won’t produce a top 3 pick like many are predicting, it will be enough to propel him into the top 10. Jones projects to be the prototrochal Tom Brady like QB from yesteryear. He is dedicated to film study and has a great arm for throwing the ball deep downfield. Jones understood the Alabama offense to a tee. He was in full control the whole season and had a fundamental idea of where all his offensive weapons would be leading to his 77% completion percentage. Like Joe Burrow last year, he will also be noted as having the best pocket awareness in his class.
The first knack about his game is that he doesn’t handle pressure very well. When things don’t go as designed, he isn’t the kind of QB like Lawrence or Wilson who make things happen on the fly. His vision at times is a lot like Matt Flynn. He’ll be so obsessed with his first read he will blatantly ignore wide open receivers. When he feels the heat, he’ll often throw his mechanics out of the front door making his turnover worthy throw percentage higher than most in the first round. Carolina was in the top half of the league in sacks allowed with 36 last year, but there is no doubt in my mind that he will be throwing over 10 interceptions next year because of this very trait.
At Number 9, the Broncos will be happy to see QB Trey Lance. The North Dakota State quarterback is garnishing more attention as the days pass. Todd McShay says he is the number 3 QB available in the entire draft. The first thing you’ll notice is that he has a big frame and the ability to run with the football. While he is not nearly the size that Cam Newton is (who ever will be), the guy projects to get some serious rushing yards each season. His running style is more akin to a running back than a receiver that you see with Lamar Jackson. North Dakota designed read play options and QB sneaks meaning he has the ability to open up playbooks more than any other QB in this draft. Lance has also shown the ability to make passes on all three levels.
The biggest issue with the QB, and it’s a big one, is that he played at North Dakota state which means he has never played against NFL caliber players. On top of that, they were so over the top dominant that his first read was almost always open. In fact, when it wasn’t, he often took off running immediately. In order to succeed in the NFL, he will have to be able to go through his reads or he won’t make it in the league. His arm strength also leaves a lot to be desired.
Finally at number 10, the Cowboys will thank the stars for an offensive heavy top 10 and take CB Patrick Surtain II. The corner has some of the best hand work from a corner I’ve seen coming out the draft in the past 2 years. He has the ability to push receivers off their route and close off their catching lanes rather than letting them open up for a potential throw from the QB. He reads opposing receiver’s hips like a book. He has a feel for the game similar to Ja’Marr Chase which is an intangible trait that can’t be taught.
The only problem is that he doesn’t do well against bigger opponents nor would you want him matched up in the slot. He thrives on disrupting his matchup at the line of scrimmage and if he can’t control that pace of play, he struggles. Many scouts also say he lacks the speed to stay with receivers deep down the field. He played a lot of snaps in man to man, and I think would do very well in intermediate zones to the outside.
The Cowboys are desperate for defense and he is the best available. It’s as simple as that.
